The National Hurricane Center in Miami-Dade issued an advisory at 7 a.m., reporting that the storm is becoming less organized and may fizzle into a tropical storm later Thursday.

via Hurricane Rina fizzling, no longer threat to South Florida – Hurricanes – MiamiHerald.com.

Cancun Hurricane Rina Advisory

For guests scheduled to travel to, from and through Cancun Oct. 26-29, 2011:

• Those whose travel has already begun may make one itinerary change. Rules and restrictions regarding standard change fees, advance purchase, day or time applications, blackouts, and minimum or maximum stay requirements have been waived. Origin and destination cities must remain the same. Changes must be made by midnight, Oct. 29, 2011, and travel completed by Nov. 12, 2011.
• Those who have not begun travel may make one change to their travel plans without a change fee or difference in fare if changed by Oct. 29, 2011 and travel occurs by Nov. 12, 2011. All travel rescheduled after Nov. 12, 2011 may be subject to higher fares if it does not meet original rule or booking class.

For more information regarding Frontier’s weather policy or to check the status of a flight, visit the travel advisory page on FrontierAirlines.com.

Officials hope to convince tourists that travel there is now safe

TULUM, Mexico – The last time Bud Olson visited Mexico, he ended up in a hospital with kidney stones and missed the ancient Mayan ruins in the seaside town of Tulum. So when he heard that swine flu was sweeping through Mexico just weeks before he was to return this year, the 43-year-old Seattle resident and his friends threw all caution to the warm Caribbean breezes and went anyway.

His reward? No lines, great service, empty beaches –- and lower prices.

“There was no one at our resort,” said Olson’s friend, Penny Moeller, 44. “The service was spectacular. But it’s a shame for the economy.”

Some of the promotions being advertised:

Flu-free guarantee: Several hotel chains in Cancun are offering a free vacation a year for three consecutive years if guests come down with swine flu within 14 days of their departure and can produce the blood tests to prove it.

Free insurance: Mexico City is offering tourists free health insurance.

Package deals: Expedia Inc. says average price of vacation packages to Cancun in which a flight and hotel are booked together has dropped 26 percent compared to last summer.

Continue reading.

It is expected that Gustav will be a powerful hurricane as it moves into the southern Gulf of Mexico on Sunday. Southwesterly vertical wind shear could increase late in the period when the system is forecast to be in the northern Gulf but there is considerably uncertainty at that time. –Tropical Storm Gustav Discussion Number 13

Continuously updated satellite image. 

Hurricane Dean made landfall as a Category Five hurricane at 3:30 a.m. today at Majahual, 190 miles south of Cancun. Winds were estimated as high as 185 mph.

As of 7:42 a. m., basic services are functioning normally in Cancun. Some public transportation has been suspended, including ADO long-distance bus service. All traffic signal lights were removed prior to the storm. Civil defense authorities have asked the population to stay at home and avoid unnecessary movement. Weather remains windy with some rain, but clouds are now lifting somewhat.

Access to the Hotel Zone is restricted by a police checkpoint at the entrance. Elements of the Mexican army and the Policía Federal Preventiva (PFP) are patrolling Boulevard Kukulcán. According to our local newspaper, Novedades de Quintana Roo, high waves have flooded the beach at Playa Mirador as a result of the fierce winds. Hurricane Dean is approximately at the halfway mark in its progress across the state. All airports in Quintana Roo are closed.

BBC NEWS | World | Americas | Hurricane Dean hits Mexico coast

Andrea Montalvo, of the US-based Spanish-language Telemundo television network, said the storm was wreaking havoc in the Mexican city of Chetumal.

“Inside the hotel it is really bad, every 10 or 15 minutes you can hear windows shattering and people are coming out of their rooms in panic,” she said.

“Some people have been moved to schools on higher ground, but if this is how it is here in this hotel, which is pretty solid, I don’t want to think about how it is there.”

She said the shelters in Chetumal and surrounding areas did not seem well prepared and had holes in the walls and no food or water.

City officials said there were power outages as the wind knocked over trees and sent debris flying through the air.

Hurricane Dean Forecast Discussion from the National Hurricane Center

Dean made landfall on the East Coast of the Yucatan Peninsula near the cruise ship port of costa maya around 0830 UTC…and the eye is now just inland. Observations from an Air Force hurricane hunter plane indicate that the hurricane was intensifying right up to landfall. A peak flight-level wind of 165 kt was measured just north of the eye. Maximum surface winds from the SFMR were 124 kt…but it is highly likely that the maximum surface wind speed was not reported by the SFMR instrument. A GPS dropsonde in the northern eyewall measured a wind speed of 178 kt averaged over the lowest 150 meters of the sounding. Based on the dropsonde and the flight-level winds…the intensity is set at 145 kt. A dropsonde in the eye measured a central pressure of 906 mb just prior to landfall. Some historic notes are in order here. The 906 mb central pressure is the ninth lowest on record for an Atlantic Basin hurricane…and the third lowest at landfall behind the 1935 Labor Day hurricane in the Florida Keys and hurricane Gilbert of 1988 in Cancun Mexico. Dean is also the first category five hurricane to make landfall in the Atlantic Basin since Andrew of 1992.

Dean will weaken as it traverses the Yucatan Peninsula and the amount of weakening will depend on how long the center remains over land. Our current thinking is that the cyclone will still be a borderline Cat 1/2 hurricane when it emerges over the Bay of Campeche…but there is considerable uncertainty in this forecast. Assuming that the inner core is not too disrupted by its interaction with land…Dean should regain major hurricane status before its final landfall in Mainland Mexico.

Initial motion is estimated to be 285/17. Deep layer high pressure near the northern Gulf Coast should steer the hurricane on a west-northwestward to westward heading for the next couple of days. The official track forecast is similar to the previous one.

The Hurricane Warning is extended westward along the Bay of Campeche coastline of Mexico.Forecast positions and Max winds

initial 21/0900z 18.7n 87.8w 145 kt
12hr VT 21/1800z 19.1n 90.4w 85 kt…inland
24hr VT 22/0600z 19.6n 93.9w 95 kt…over Bay of Campeche
36hr VT 22/1800z 20.1n 96.8w 105 kt…inland
48hr VT 23/0600z 20.5n 100.0w 25 kt…inland…dissipating
72hr VT 24/0600z…dissipated

$$
forecaster Pasch/Brown

Rain bands were already rolling on shore in the Yucatan even though the storm was more than 200 miles away. People were urged to prepare for an “extremely dangerous” storm.

Chetumal, the capital of the Mexican state of Quintana Roo, was largely empty Monday evening, with little traffic in the streets. Most of the 130,000 residents in the coastal city appeared to have heeded government warnings to seek shelter or evacuate.

Coastal resorts such as Cancun and Cozumel largely emptied.

Regional airports said people were packing into planes to get out Monday, following one of the busiest weekends of the year — the last before schools reopen in Mexico.

Of the 20,000 tourists in Quintana Roo, about 13,000 had been evacuated as of Monday evening, and planes were still taking off, said Rosario Ortiz Yeladaque, the state’s secretary of government.

Although Dean was forecast to come ashore south of the main tourist areas and closer to Chetumal, the storm was so large — about the size of Texas — that its tropical winds and waves were expected to affect the entire Yucatan and neighboring Belize to the south.”

Translated from Notimex:

Governor Félix González Canto has decreed a red alert for the southern parts of Quintana Roo due to the imminent arrival of hurricane Dean. The northern area of the state, including Cancun, Cozumel and Isla Mujeres remain in orange alert while the storm continues on its current trajectory.

Approximately 7 p.m. tropical storm strength winds will be felt along the coast. Dean should make landfall near Majahual, 190 miles south of Cancun, at two a.m. Tuesday, and at about 10 a.m. continue across the Yucatan, Campeche and the Gulf of Mexico.

Photograph by Anita Brown, 8:04 a.m, from our back window.